In handicap races the role of the handicapper is “allot(s) weights that, in his opinion, will make each horse’s chance of winning equal to the chances of all the other horses.” Don Scott (1985) Winning More.
The weights released for this Saturday’s Oakleigh Plate fail to provide an adequate spread so as to truly equalise the chances of all the horses to win the race. Sixteen of the seventeen horses allotted weights were within 1.5kg of each other.
Furthermore, eleven horses, all of varying ability, were assigned the limit weight of 51.5kg. Such an outcome is an anomaly.
How is a multiple Group 1 winner (Virage De Fortune) the equal of a Group 3 winning 3YO filly (Queen Of The Hill) or an open handicap sprinter from South Australia (Grace And Power) or a Listed winning 3YO colt (Gonski) or a 3YO gelding(Pirate Island) who is the winner of a Class 3 in South Australia?
While we might sympathise with the handicapper who is currently constrained by Racing Victoria’s Ratings Based Handicapping Policy and an imposed minimum weight schedule the results that such protocols throw up are simply inequitable.
The Oakleigh Plate is one of Australia’s oldest open feature sprint handicaps, first run in 1884. It has effectively evolved into a quality handicap, similar to the path that the Melbourne Cup is taking, whereby the best horses in the race are favoured at the handicap due to a smaller spread in the weights.
Former High Court Judge Michael McHugh, in his article “Racing Badly Handicapped by Fixed-Weight System” in the Sydney Morning Herald (6 January 2006)made some interesting observations when referring specifically to handicap races in Sydney, “the handicapper is now required to weight from the top down, with the topweight seldom being allotted more than 60kg and more often than not being allotted about 56.5kg. Commonly, almost half the field carry the limit weight with no realistic chance of winning.”
He went on to suggest a solution, “The best remedy for this state of affairs is the Hong Kong class and rating band system.” Such a system would be advantageous in his opinion as the ratings used, “reflect the handicapper’s estimate of the true difference in ability between horses. Handicapping in HK is based on merit, not class.”
Alternatively, if handicappers are not willing or able to properly assign weights to horses according to their ability so as to equalise the chances of all horses to win a race, then why don’t we just abolish handicaps and run all stakes races in Australia at either set weights or weight-for-age?
John MessaraSource: Arrowfield media release
