That dreaded word has graced a few media articles again in recent days. ThoroughbredInternet.com reports that "3,651 yearlings were offered at the major European yearling sales in 2002; in 2004 it was 4,273 ... If there is to be a culprit, it may be that there are too many yearlings being bred, aimed at the top-end of the market, & in Europe there are only the Maktoum family & Coolmore who can play at the top-end in numbers. The European buying bench does not have the same depth of North America & an unhealthy emphasis on top-end production simply exacerbates the problem."

So what you may say? Last we checked we didn't live in Europe. True, but Australia has greater similarities to Europe than America in terms of its buying bench. Exacerbating the situation is the increased number of large commercial studs jostling for position at the top end of the local market and a number of stallions on offer at the AUD$60K+ level which, whilst significantly less expensive than America, still require significant buyer purchasing power if breeders are to get adequate return on their investment.

This year's Magic Millions Premier and Inglis Easter Sale showed that the records are there to be broken but if anything, Vinery's news last week that it was pursuing a new strategy in Australia said a whole lot more about the future than the neatly typed press release's words that changes were being adopted as a result of 'personal and family reasons'. A rigorous analysis of the Vinery business plan given its strong US ties will no doubt have demonstrated that the US market is a far more profitable alternative. Some will argue that that's a simplistic conclusion but a Stud the size of Vinery with the level of sunk costs and ongoing annual investment it absorbs in Australia has probably faced the daunting question of how it positions itself alongside the likes of Coolmore, Darley and Arrowfield to ensure adequate return on investment. Coolmore and Darley appear to have taken on a quasi Coke/Pepsi battle for market share and the flood of horses the two will strike the 2006 yearling market with will be interesting in regards to yearling prices, (a potential number of) over-bred mares, what horses qualify for what sales and a glut of yearlings by the same sire which should, if anything, drive down average prices as the power shifts to the buyer rather than the vendor.